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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 23 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
55%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 784 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 963 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
456 picks · 351 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
451 picks · 196 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 600 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 717 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 205 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
423 picks · 713 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:32
Heroic 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaK1
48% · 96 games60% · 106 games
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Kunkka
Kunkka4nalog
52% · 151 game37% · 30 games
AxeMalik
Axe
Slardar
SlardarDavai
46% · 55 games51% · 77 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
49% · 83 games52% · 95 games
GyrocopterOmaR
Gyrocopter
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
41% · 83 games54% · 160 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed24:51
Heroic 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:09:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
46% · 118 games51% · 109 games
RazorNo!ob
Razor
Zeus
Zeus4nalog
44% · 78 games56% · 55 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
43% · 162 games54% · 126 games
Dragon KnightMalik
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
53% · 83 games51% · 88 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
46% · 99 games57% · 162 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 56%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2