Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 36 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 25 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 22 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
Elder Titan
Whitemon · 13 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 13 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 12 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 787 bans
Batrider
462 picks · 960 bans
Techies
454 picks · 351 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 600 bans
Mars
452 picks · 718 bans
Crystal Maiden
448 picks · 196 bans
Rubick
436 picks · 206 bans
Pangolier
422 picks · 710 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength65% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
Tundra Esports 62%Blacklist International 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 41:47.
Game 2prediction correct34:10
Tundra Esports 62%Blacklist International 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2