Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
502 picks · 784 bans
Batrider
459 picks · 956 bans
Mars
454 picks · 719 bans
Techies
452 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 597 bans
Crystal Maiden
443 picks · 195 bans
Rubick
433 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
419 picks · 707 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:30
Blacklist International 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:30.
Game 2prediction missed26:11
Blacklist International 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 55%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2