Elite League · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Rubick
Mira · 19 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Lion
Mira · 17 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 13 games
Heroic
Gyrocoptersignature
KJ · 20 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 16 games
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
502 picks · 784 bans
Batrider
459 picks · 956 bans
Mars
454 picks · 719 bans
Techies
452 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 597 bans
Crystal Maiden
443 picks · 195 bans
Rubick
433 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
419 picks · 707 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:48
Team Spirit 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYatoro
LunaK1
Dark SeerCollapse
Keeper of the Light4nalog
LinaLarl
Primal BeastDavai
Shadow DemonMiposhka
GrimstrokeScofield
TinyMira
GyrocopterKJ
Game 2prediction missed18:35
Team Spirit 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 51:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
Troll WarlordK1
TinyLarl
Keeper of the Light4nalog
MagnusCollapse
PangolierDavai
RubickMira
SnapfireScofield
GyrocopterMiposhka
EnchantressKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 69%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2