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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 25 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 14 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 11 games
82%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 19 games
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 16 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
499 picks · 783 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 952 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 717 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 352 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 596 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
442 picks · 192 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
429 picks · 203 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
416 picks · 704 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:13
Talon Esports 40%Heroic 60%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerV-Tune
46% · 117 games50% · 64 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Razor
RazorCHYuan
39% · 87 games54% · 87 games
Death Prophet4nalog
Death Prophet
Slardar
SlardarWs
51% · 49 games52% · 132 games
KunkkaDavai
Kunkka
Pugna
PugnaPonyo
54% · 137 games57% · 150 games
DisruptorKJ
Disruptor
Tiny
TinyJhocam
49% · 175 games50% · 132 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct16:13
Talon Esports 39%Heroic 61%
The model gave 61% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingV-Tune
54% · 49 games53% · 215 games
AlchemistK1
Alchemist
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCHYuan
54% · 153 games50% · 205 games
Dragon Knight4nalog
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierWs
50% · 278 games45% · 169 games
Death ProphetDavai
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickJhocam
48% · 369 games50% · 179 games
GrimstrokeKJ
Grimstroke
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPonyo
49% · 205 games49% · 286 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct16:34
Talon Esports 40%Heroic 60%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingV-Tune
49% · 192 games45% · 160 games
LifestealerK1
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangerWs
44% · 113 games49% · 57 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Pangolier
PangolierCHYuan
51% · 296 games52% · 352 games
Primal Beast4nalog
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderPonyo
58% · 178 games47% · 197 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Tiny
TinyJhocam
51% · 196 games53% · 209 games
GyrocopterKJ
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 67%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3