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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 14 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
497 picks · 782 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 715 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 952 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 353 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 594 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
440 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 204 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
Talon Esports 45%PSG Quest 55%
The model gave 55% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingV-Tune
46% · 293 games54% · 138 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWs
45% · 158 games50% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Kunkka
KunkkaCHYuan
53% · 200 games55% · 260 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPonyo
52% · 114 games47% · 194 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
40% · 48 games56% · 111 games
GyrocopterOmaR
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed45:11
Talon Esports 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorWs
46% · 120 games57% · 77 games
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Pangolier
PangolierCHYuan
48% · 313 games51% · 229 games
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Slark
SlarkV-Tune
50% · 138 games51% · 243 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Rubick
RubickJhocam
45% · 360 games51% · 217 games
GyrocopterOmaR
Gyrocopter
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPonyo
52% · 228 games50% · 393 games
BatriderDukalis
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct7:30
Talon Esports 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaV-Tune
46% · 171 game59% · 191 game
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCHYuan
46% · 363 games47% · 87 games
ZeusNo!ob
Zeus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 259 games50% · 487 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickJhocam
42% · 477 games52% · 400 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorPonyo
48% · 242 games55% · 347 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 62%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3