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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 25 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 25 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 21 game
62%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 18 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
sayuw · 16 games
38%

nouns

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
85%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 20 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 17 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 782 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 714 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 948 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
449 picks · 353 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 593 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
440 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
422 picks · 204 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:34
Virtus.pro 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
52% · 191 game47% · 237 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Luna
LunaKiritych
47% · 186 games49% · 65 games
ZeusCopy
Zeus
Tiny
TinyNoticed
55% · 252 games50% · 149 games
KunkkaGunnar
Kunkka
Techies
Techiessayuw
52% · 388 games45% · 495 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFng
61% · 95 games45% · 166 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Virtus.pro 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
46% · 217 games55% · 239 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Broodmother
BroodmotherNoticed
43% · 40 games54% · 299 games
Primal BeastCopy
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
49% · 339 games53% · 232 games
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batridersayuw
51% · 254 games47% · 157 games
GrimstrokeLelis
Grimstroke
Disruptor
DisruptorFng
55% · 143 games40% · 66 games
BaneFly
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2