Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KEV
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Razoroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
Techies
Undyne_ · 6 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 780 bans
Mars
453 picks · 710 bans
Techies
448 picks · 351 bans
Batrider
447 picks · 944 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 590 bans
Crystal Maiden
438 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
421 picks · 202 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
KEV 23%Aurora Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:30.
Game 2prediction correct6:18
KEV 23%Aurora Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 77%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2