Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 34 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 20 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 17 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 12 games
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 11 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 780 bans
Mars
453 picks · 710 bans
Techies
448 picks · 351 bans
Batrider
447 picks · 944 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 590 bans
Crystal Maiden
438 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
421 picks · 202 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 66%
Hero pool strength64% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:42
Tundra Esports 76%Blacklist International 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 1:00:39.
Game 2prediction correct19:6
Tundra Esports 76%Blacklist International 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 19:32.
Game 3prediction correct40:12
Tundra Esports 76%Blacklist International 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3