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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 17 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 14 games
64%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 14 games
79%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 779 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
453 picks · 710 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
447 picks · 941 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
447 picks · 351 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 590 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
437 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 202 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:26
nouns 50%PSG Quest 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
49% · 230 games52% · 233 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
58% · 101 game43% · 57 games
ZeusNo!ob
Zeus
Omniknight
OmniknightGunnar
52% · 23 games46% · 167 games
KunkkaMalik
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickLelis
51% · 319 games49% · 327 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesFly
50% · 264 games51% · 153 games
GyrocopterOmaR
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed36:12
nouns 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by nouns in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuma
52% · 150 games53% · 159 games
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyGunnar
48% · 274 games52% · 220 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
52% · 340 games56% · 41 game
OmniknightMalik
Omniknight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLelis
40% · 175 games47% · 519 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
51% · 266 games51% · 266 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed12:36
nouns 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
48% · 131 game45% · 61 game
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
52% · 211 games42% · 55 games
ZeusNo!ob
Zeus
Doom
DoomGunnar
58% · 229 games49% · 203 games
Dragon KnightMalik
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
57% · 153 games47% · 139 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLelis
64% · 24 games43% · 290 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 54%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3