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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 16 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 13 games
77%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 15 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 779 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
452 picks · 710 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
447 picks · 351 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
446 picks · 940 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 590 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
434 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 201 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:22
Talon Esports 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaV-Tune
48% · 122 games50% · 190 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaCHYuan
48% · 137 games50% · 134 games
TinyILICH-
Tiny
Omniknight
OmniknightWs
52% · 19 games54% · 162 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
46% · 34 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonyo
51% · 174 games
Game 2prediction correct8:38
Talon Esports 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingV-Tune
45% · 128 games58% · 63 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Leshrac
LeshracCHYuan
53% · 56 games50% · 177 games
KunkkaILICH-
Kunkka
Mars
MarsWs
43% · 128 games53% · 182 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
TuskJhocam
40% · 80 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPonyo
59% · 30 games
Game 3prediction correct14:43
Talon Esports 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
47% · 50 games35% · 56 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Leshrac
LeshracCHYuan
57% · 61 game52% · 101 game
EnigmaILICH-
Enigma
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
45% · 53 games52% · 235 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
54% · 145 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonyo
54% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3