Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 20 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 18 games
Rubick
Ari · 18 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 17 games
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 778 bans
Mars
450 picks · 710 bans
Techies
447 picks · 351 bans
Batrider
445 picks · 936 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 590 bans
Crystal Maiden
432 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
417 picks · 201 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
OG 59%Entity 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 32:18.
Game 2prediction missed16:46
OG 59%Entity 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 40:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2