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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 15 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 10 games
80%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
aik · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techiessignature
aik · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 777 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 708 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
445 picks · 350 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
443 picks · 933 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 587 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
429 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 201 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
MOUZ 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenUlnit
53% · 145 games39% · 82 games
Linanicky`cool
Lina
Doom
DoomForce
60% · 266 games43% · 53 games
WeaverLukas
Weaver
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
51% · 81 game57% · 268 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
48% · 146 games49% · 341 game
Techiesaik
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
54% · 213 games43% · 107 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed40:48
MOUZ 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 52:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSupream^
50% · 143 games48% · 139 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Weaver
WeaverUlnit
58% · 69 games43% · 65 games
Zeusnicky`cool
Zeus
Doom
DoomForce
53% · 245 games58% · 280 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorNARMAN
49% · 156 games51% · 112 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
51% · 137 games42% · 154 games
Vengeful Spiritaik
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction missed18:37
MOUZ 64%Nemiga Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
48% · 187 games54% · 170 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Puck
PuckSupream^
53% · 230 games44% · 146 games
SvenLukas
Sven
Enigma
EnigmaForce
54% · 139 games47% · 201 game
Dragon KnightMikSa`
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomNARMAN
49% · 349 games49% · 420 games
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Undying
Undyingbengan
50% · 249 games52% · 217 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3