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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 32 games
84%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 24 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 19 games
84%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 16 games
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 12 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 11 games
91%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
KuroKy · 10 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KuroKy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
485 picks · 775 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 707 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
441 picks · 349 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
439 picks · 930 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 584 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
427 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 200 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Tundra Esports 75%Nigma Galaxy 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
42% · 48 games46% · 169 games
TerrorbladeMiracle-
Terrorblade
Sniper
SniperTopson
49% · 36 games51% · 134 games
Dragon KnightFbz
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
49% · 221 game49% · 37 games
Earth SpiritSumaiL
Earth Spirit
Chen
ChenWhitemon
62% · 117 games53% · 207 games
DoomMatthew
Doom
Techies
Techies9Class
48% · 349 games48% · 224 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Tundra Esports 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
46% · 140 games50% · 155 games
LifestealerMiracle-
Lifestealer
Pugna
PugnaTopson
52% · 189 games48% · 136 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Batrider
Batrider9Class
55% · 282 games48% · 275 games
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Kunkka
KunkkaTobi
46% · 165 games57% · 248 games
MiranaKuroKy
Mirana
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
47% · 331 game50% · 293 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 87%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2