Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
Gyrocopter
KJ · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 16 games
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 10 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
483 picks · 775 bans
Mars
448 picks · 707 bans
Techies
441 picks · 349 bans
Batrider
438 picks · 929 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 584 bans
Crystal Maiden
427 picks · 191 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
414 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:59
Heroic 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Entity in 38:51.
Game 2prediction missed9:23
Heroic 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Entity in 24:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 54%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2