Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 13 games
OG
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 18 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 18 games
Rubick
Ari · 17 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
482 picks · 775 bans
Mars
446 picks · 707 bans
Techies
441 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 584 bans
Batrider
437 picks · 928 bans
Crystal Maiden
426 picks · 191 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
413 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:28
nouns 40%OG 60%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCopy
Anti-MageTimado
SvenYuma
Leshracbzm
Dragon KnightGunnar
MarsWisper
GyrocopterLelis
RubickAri
Crystal MaidenFly
BatriderCeb
Game 2prediction correct22:31
nouns 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaYuma
MorphlingTimado
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
MarsWisper
SniperCopy
Void Spiritbzm
GyrocopterLelis
DoomAri
ClockwerkFly
WindrangerCeb
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 68%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2