Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmersloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 774 bans
Mars
446 picks · 706 bans
Techies
439 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
436 picks · 926 bans
Crystal Maiden
423 picks · 189 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
411 picks · 198 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Rest Farmers 30%Blacklist International 70%
The model gave 70% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 33:54.
Game 2prediction correct33:26
Rest Farmers 30%Blacklist International 70%
The model gave 70% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 70%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2