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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 16 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 13 games
77%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 10 games
70%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 9 games
56%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KuroKy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 770 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
438 picks · 347 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 922 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 575 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
420 picks · 189 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:38
Talon Esports 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageV-Tune
46% · 42 games36% · 59 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetWs
60% · 80 games53% · 142 games
Faceless VoidMiracle-
Faceless Void
Razor
RazorCHYuan
51% · 126 games49% · 99 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Tusk
TuskJhocam
49% · 183 games51% · 166 games
TinyMatthew
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPonyo
57% · 183 games42% · 148 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Talon Esports 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingV-Tune
49% · 356 games45% · 81 game
Anti-MageMiracle-
Anti-Mage
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWs
48% · 168 games54% · 349 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaCHYuan
51% · 209 games44% · 125 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaPonyo
55% · 265 games48% · 437 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJhocam
51% · 309 games53% · 315 games
BatriderKuroKy
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct31:30
Talon Esports 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingV-Tune
46% · 240 games57% · 208 games
Faceless VoidMiracle-
Faceless Void
Razor
RazorCHYuan
45% · 116 games44% · 66 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsWs
50% · 271 game53% · 194 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPonyo
52% · 87 games53% · 110 games
MiranaKuroKy
Mirana
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
39% · 36 games54% · 172 games
TinyMatthew
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 60%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3