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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
62%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 14 games
57%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 768 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
435 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 573 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
431 picks · 920 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
417 picks · 189 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
406 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 66%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:50
OG 68%Blacklist International 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 46:31.
Game 2prediction correct38:14
OG 68%Blacklist International 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:20.
Game 3prediction correct35:13
OG 68%Blacklist International 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 26:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 68%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3