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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 11 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Pakazs · 9 games
56%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 12 games
42%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 766 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
435 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 566 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 912 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
411 picks · 186 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 195 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:25
BOOM Esports 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 25:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPakazs
53% · 140 games44% · 123 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
55% · 123 games39% · 97 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
51% · 202 games45% · 61 game
EnigmaMalik
Enigma
52% · 64 games
GyrocopterOmaR
Gyrocopter
54% · 120 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct34:33
BOOM Esports 50%PSG Quest 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverPakazs
56% · 41 game36% · 18 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
55% · 182 games48% · 164 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
55% · 191 game51% · 33 games
LycanMalik
Lycan
42% · 127 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
42% · 72 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed29:16
BOOM Esports 49%PSG Quest 51%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
53% · 76 games48% · 150 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastILICH-
52% · 220 games56% · 52 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
50% · 170 games44% · 124 games
MarsMalik
Mars
41% · 112 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
57% · 28 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 52%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3