Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmersloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 20 games
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 15 games
Marssignature
Ws · 14 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
471 picks · 759 bans
Mars
437 picks · 703 bans
Techies
433 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
428 picks · 564 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 904 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
407 picks · 183 bans
Rubick
397 picks · 194 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:37
Rest Farmers 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:29.
Game 2prediction correct4:26
Rest Farmers 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 23:23.
Game 3prediction correct43:25
Rest Farmers 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 64%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3