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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 11 games
82%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
78%

Virtus.pro

Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 24 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 24 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 15 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Squad1x · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
sayuw · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
471 picks · 759 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 703 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
433 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 564 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 904 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
407 picks · 183 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:30
Team Secret 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
58% · 192 games47% · 144 games
WindrangerSquad1x
Windranger
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
52% · 77 games44% · 94 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPuppey
55% · 52 games38% · 47 games
DawnbreakerNoticed
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderAhFu
54% · 229 games50% · 187 games
DisruptorFng
Disruptor
45% · 78 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed27:11
Team Secret 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
56% · 214 games44% · 166 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBOOM
48% · 190 games43% · 148 games
WindrangerSquad1x
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
53% · 361 game48% · 101 game
Dragon KnightNoticed
Dragon Knight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
71% · 86 games45% · 135 games
MiranaFng
Mirana
40% · 301 game
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2