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BLAST Slam VII · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 36 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 30 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 28 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
59%

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 60 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 55 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 51 game
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 45 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 40 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
546 picks · 336 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 567 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 233 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 354 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 498 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 844 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
320 picks · 217 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
315 picks · 802 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:49
Tundra Esports 44%Aurora Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:01:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPure~
53% · 250 games47% · 289 games
SnapfireMikoto
Snapfire
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
46% · 372 games46% · 442 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
49% · 267 games46% · 239 games
AxeWs
Axe
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAri
49% · 203 games56% · 87 games
VenomancerKaori
Venomancer
Bane
BaneWhitemon
62% · 159 games48% · 194 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1