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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 1:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:0
nounsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%

nouns

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 18 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 14 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 757 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 703 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
433 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 562 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
405 picks · 181 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
1w Team 31%nouns 69%
The model gave 69% on nouns — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 69%
Series result1w Team 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1