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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 22 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
73%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
36%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 754 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 701 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
433 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 559 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
413 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
404 picks · 180 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:42
Natus Vincere Junior 52%HULIGANI 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
51% · 192 games37% · 80 games
Linare1bl
Lina
Pudge
Pudgegotthejuice
48% · 45 games48% · 109 games
Gyrocopterv1olent-
Gyrocopter
Razor
Razorpma
54% · 129 games53% · 36 games
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderDaze
53% · 205 games50% · 194 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Lich
LichRiddys
54% · 43 games53% · 195 games
LionOneJey
Lion
Game 2prediction correct11:32
Natus Vincere Junior 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 24:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
50% · 277 games48% · 104 games
Leshracv1olent-
Leshrac
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
44% · 216 games48% · 217 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNiku
53% · 207 games44% · 160 games
WindrangerBb3px
Windranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDaze
50% · 52 games50% · 210 games
PugnaOneJey
Pugna
Oracle
OracleRiddys
61% · 69 games53% · 130 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2