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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
nounswin 3:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 3:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 18 games
83%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 15 games
87%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 13 games
77%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Lelis · 12 games
83%

GRIN esports

Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 8 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 7 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
467 picks · 749 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 696 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
430 picks · 345 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 554 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 900 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
400 picks · 177 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
393 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
nouns 65%GRIN esports 35%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
45% · 103 games54% · 156 games
KunkkaMoo
Kunkka
Timbersaw
TimbersawGunnar
51% · 92 games50% · 218 games
Crystal MaidenLodine
Crystal Maiden
Puck
PuckCopy
55% · 80 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLelis
40% · 22 games
Undying
UndyingFly
48% · 77 games
Game 2prediction correct41:30
nouns 66%GRIN esports 34%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 56:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
47% · 74 games55% · 167 games
Dark SeerMoo
Dark Seer
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCopy
54% · 61 game49% · 228 games
Vengeful SpiritLodine
Vengeful Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
43% · 73 games
Rubick
RubickLelis
38% · 132 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
57% · 55 games
Game 3prediction correct41:22
nouns 63%GRIN esports 37%
The model gave 63% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
55% · 61 game42% · 215 games
MarsMoo
Mars
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGunnar
54% · 95 games54% · 225 games
DisruptorLodine
Disruptor
Sniper
SniperCopy
44% · 12 games
Tiny
TinyLelis
49% · 121 game
Techies
TechiesFly
51% · 151 game
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 77%
Series resultnouns 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3