The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelionsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 13 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 13 games
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 9 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
Luna
RAMZES666 · 8 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 749 bans
Mars
435 picks · 696 bans
Techies
430 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
423 picks · 552 bans
Batrider
421 picks · 900 bans
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
399 picks · 177 bans
Rubick
392 picks · 194 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
HULIGANI 67%Dandelions 33%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:04.
Game 2prediction correct50:33
HULIGANI 67%Dandelions 33%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 67%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2