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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 15 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 9 games
78%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 8 games
50%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 13 games
31%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 744 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 694 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
430 picks · 345 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 548 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 896 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
396 picks · 176 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 193 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
MOUZ 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
53% · 123 games47% · 186 games
Svenv1olent-
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
51% · 242 games50% · 16 games
Sniperre1bl
Sniper
Puck
PuckSupream^
50% · 187 games49% · 172 games
MagnusBb3px
Magnus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterNARMAN
51% · 80 games50% · 102 games
ChenPanto
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
54% · 237 games46% · 393 games
RubickOneJey
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct32:18
MOUZ 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
48% · 143 games47% · 90 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
51% · 101 game48% · 150 games
Windrangerre1bl
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 85 games50% · 192 games
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
49% · 243 games49% · 153 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Disruptor
Disruptorbengan
51% · 156 games55% · 143 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2