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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
62%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 16 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 13 games
54%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 15 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 11 games
45%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 9 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 8 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 734 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 690 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
426 picks · 340 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 543 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 891 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 176 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 185 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:39
OG 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 57:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTimado
56% · 119 games49% · 172 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
54% · 149 games47% · 107 games
RazorSupream^
Razor
Batrider
BatriderWisper
53% · 179 games47% · 122 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Doom
DoomAri
50% · 194 games43% · 221 game
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernCeb
56% · 30 games44% · 49 games
Banebengan
Bane
Game 2prediction correct41:36
OG 62%MOUZ 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenTimado
45% · 22 games59% · 104 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Invoker
Invokerbzm
47% · 83 games51% · 78 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
50% · 66 games59% · 9 games
OmniknightForce
Omniknight
Doom
DoomAri
51% · 218 games43% · 148 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCeb
51% · 75 games50% · 125 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2