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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 20 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 15 games
47%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
pJonn · 12 games
33%
Techies
Techies
rue · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Satanic · 11 games
55%

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 20 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fng · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 733 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 687 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
425 picks · 338 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
411 picks · 357 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 542 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 891 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
390 picks · 175 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 185 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
Yellow Submarine 38%Virtus.pro 62%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSatanic
59% · 123 games51% · 121 game
LeshracNoticed
Leshrac
Razor
Razorerase
50% · 109 games51% · 137 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
Brewmasteremptiness
48% · 88 games39% · 186 games
WindrangerSquad1x
Windranger
Techies
Techiesrue
53% · 228 games44% · 99 games
EnigmaFng
Enigma
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
56% · 132 games48% · 137 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed40:22
Yellow Submarine 37%Virtus.pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckerase
51% · 221 game47% · 212 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
49% · 231 game51% · 121 game
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
49% · 227 games52% · 320 games
TinyNoticed
Tiny
Lion
Lionrue
47% · 236 games52% · 253 games
MiranaFng
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
50% · 234 games51% · 243 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct14:24
Yellow Submarine 36%Virtus.pro 64%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSatanic
56% · 154 games55% · 131 game
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
46% · 308 games44% · 293 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
46% · 264 games51% · 282 games
TinyNoticed
Tiny
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
40% · 173 games56% · 225 games
MiranaFng
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
51% · 250 games56% · 218 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 73%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3