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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:3
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Blacklist Internationalwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 18 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 14 games
43%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 9 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 8 games
88%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 8 games
75%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 732 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 686 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
424 picks · 338 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 538 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
409 picks · 355 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 891 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
387 picks · 174 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 184 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:29
Neon Esports 38%Blacklist International 62%
The model gave 62% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 31:28.
Game 2prediction correct16:33
Neon Esports 38%Blacklist International 62%
The model gave 62% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 36:57.
Game 3prediction correct20:24
Neon Esports 38%Blacklist International 62%
The model gave 62% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 46:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 62%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3