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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GRIN esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 4 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
bgod · 2 games
100%
Lion
Lion
bgod · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
0%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
bgod · 1 game
0%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 1 game
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
100%

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 729 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 686 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
422 picks · 338 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 535 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 891 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
386 picks · 174 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 184 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% GRIN esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total55% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TiltedBoys 45%GRIN esports 55%
The model gave 55% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 55%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1