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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 11 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 9 games
89%

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 727 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
424 picks · 684 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
419 picks · 337 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 529 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 888 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
381 picks · 174 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 181 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:37
BOOM Esports 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 54:14.
Game 2prediction missed25:47
BOOM Esports 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:20.
Game 3prediction missed20:40
BOOM Esports 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 32:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3