PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
MOUZ
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 15 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 11 games
Sven
Ulnit · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 9 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 8 games
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 727 bans
Mars
422 picks · 683 bans
Techies
418 picks · 337 bans
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 527 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 886 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 180 bans
Crystal Maiden
380 picks · 174 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total73% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Entity 73%MOUZ 27%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction correct
Entity 73%MOUZ 27%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity.
Game 3prediction missed
Entity 73%MOUZ 27%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 73%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3