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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 15 games
47%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
rue · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Satanic · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
erase · 11 games
64%

HULIGANI

Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 9 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 722 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 676 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
415 picks · 333 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 524 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 884 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
379 picks · 170 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 180 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:42
Yellow Submarine 61%HULIGANI 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
50% · 155 games53% · 180 games
SvenRAMZES666
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal Beastemptiness
50% · 206 games50% · 38 games
Outworld Destroyerre1bl
Outworld Destroyer
Puck
Puckerase
48% · 174 games53% · 260 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
39% · 111 games50% · 178 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Pugna
Pugnaasdekor_r
56% · 158 games50% · 148 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed12:38
Yellow Submarine 60%HULIGANI 40%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
50% · 180 games56% · 120 games
AlchemistRAMZES666
Alchemist
Primal Beast
Primal Beasterase
48% · 220 games53% · 141 game
Leshracre1bl
Leshrac
Mars
Marsemptiness
48% · 183 games49% · 242 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
45% · 131 game47% · 251 game
SnapfireOneJey
Snapfire
Undying
Undyingasdekor_r
53% · 244 games51% · 204 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 66%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2