PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 12 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 721 bans
Mars
421 picks · 675 bans
Techies
416 picks · 331 bans
Lion
403 picks · 360 bans
Tiny
400 picks · 522 bans
Batrider
396 picks · 882 bans
Rubick
375 picks · 179 bans
Crystal Maiden
374 picks · 167 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:35
Entity 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 55:40.
Game 2prediction missed34:25
Entity 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 49:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 51%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2