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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 5 games
20%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 720 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 671 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
416 picks · 330 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 518 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 876 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
374 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 178 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:25
Night Pulse 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 55:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKami
42% · 45 games52% · 131 game
SvenYuragi
Sven
Puck
PuckWorick
56% · 156 games47% · 80 games
BrewmasterNefrit
Brewmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
51% · 259 games54% · 134 games
KunkkaSancity
Kunkka
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
55% · 117 games42% · 104 games
GyrocopterMalady
Gyrocopter
46% · 128 games
LionZayac
Lion
Game 2prediction correct11:27
Night Pulse 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKami
54% · 150 games52% · 106 games
Naga SirenYuragi
Naga Siren
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
48% · 203 games48% · 192 games
TimbersawSancity
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
48% · 328 games51% · 185 games
MarsNefrit
Mars
Silencer
SilencerJANTER
49% · 169 games51% · 187 games
MiranaZayac
Mirana
48% · 180 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct17:31
Night Pulse 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
54% · 111 games51% · 87 games
Naga SirenYuragi
Naga Siren
Windranger
WindrangerWorick
37% · 161 game52% · 171 game
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
47% · 196 games51% · 182 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Pugna
PugnaJANTER
50% · 225 games58% · 147 games
MiranaZayac
Mirana
52% · 106 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3