?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 8 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 5 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
DJ · 5 games
80%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 718 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
417 picks · 670 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
415 picks · 330 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 517 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 874 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
374 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 177 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:22
Bleed Esports 34%Blacklist International 66%
The model gave 66% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 38:52.
Game 2prediction correct7:30
Bleed Esports 34%Blacklist International 66%
The model gave 66% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 21:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 66%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2