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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Salvation Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Mirana
Miranasignature
Skem · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jing · 9 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Skem · 9 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 8 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Skem · 8 games
63%

Salvation Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
LOyd · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 717 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
416 picks · 668 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
413 picks · 329 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 513 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 872 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
373 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 177 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:18
Geek Fam 66%Salvation Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNatsumi
53% · 180 games43% · 223 games
Templar AssassinWonder'boy
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierBob
49% · 384 games48% · 126 games
LifestealerYoungGodLevi
Lifestealer
Mirana
MiranaSkem
54% · 212 games52% · 180 games
MarsRupido
Mars
Rubick
RubickJing
51% · 445 games50% · 229 games
Shadow DemonDric~
Shadow Demon
50% · 463 games
TechiesLOyd
Techies
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Geek Fam 67%Salvation Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
53% · 145 games41% · 140 games
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckBob
49% · 212 games63% · 188 games
Keeper of the LightWonder'boy
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickSkem
48% · 417 games48% · 228 games
DoomRupido
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJing
51% · 223 games47% · 216 games
LionDric~
Lion
51% · 225 games
Centaur WarrunnerLOyd
Centaur Warrunner
Game 3prediction correct25:5
Geek Fam 67%Salvation Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
48% · 101 game55% · 150 games
PuckWonder'boy
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaBob
53% · 144 games55% · 186 games
BeastmasterRupido
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
42% · 130 games44% · 100 games
RazorYoungGodLevi
Razor
Rubick
RubickSkem
48% · 432 games56% · 206 games
BatriderDric~
Batrider
51% · 165 games
TerrorbladeLOyd
Terrorblade
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 78%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3