PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Estar Backs
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 7 games
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 7 games
Rubick
Michael · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Michael · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Disruptor
Yor · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 717 bans
Mars
415 picks · 667 bans
Techies
413 picks · 328 bans
Lion
397 picks · 360 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 511 bans
Batrider
393 picks · 871 bans
Crystal Maiden
371 picks · 166 bans
Rubick
368 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Estar Backs
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:22
beastcoast 42%Estar Backs 58%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 38:57.
Game 2prediction correct29:19
beastcoast 42%Estar Backs 58%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 34:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2