PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apex Genesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
N1NE · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Tusk
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Dark Willow
N1NE · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Apex Genesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 3 games
Pugna
BliNcc · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
red2 · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 713 bans
Mars
414 picks · 667 bans
Techies
411 picks · 328 bans
Lion
397 picks · 359 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 506 bans
Batrider
392 picks · 868 bans
Crystal Maiden
371 picks · 164 bans
Rubick
365 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Sand King Gomez 37%Apex Genesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeDaaD-
RazorLowskill
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Puckred2
GyrocopterAretes
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
TechiesN1NE
AlchemistBliNcc
48% · 173 games
PhoenixYamSun
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Sand King Gomez 37%Apex Genesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingDaaD-
AlchemistLowskill
PuckÑengoflow KELOKE
Templar Assassinred2
RubickN1NE
LeshracFayde
Vengeful SpiritAretes
TuskBliNcc
53% · 153 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 73%
Series resultApex Genesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2