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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 5 games
20%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
0%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Genek · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 2 games
0%

Infinity Esports

Techies
Techies
Demon · 6 games
17%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Demon · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 710 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 665 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
411 picks · 326 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 359 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 505 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 867 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
370 picks · 164 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
365 picks · 173 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:34
Lava 53%Infinity Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Lava — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 45:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerLumière
49% · 123 games52% · 263 games
PangolierPiPi
Pangolier
Doom
DoomFrank
50% · 311 games43% · 121 game
BrewmasterOscar
Brewmaster
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetGardick
54% · 204 games46% · 164 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeGenek
54% · 176 games55% · 128 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
47% · 138 games
Shadow DemonDemon
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed47:39
Lava 54%Infinity Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Lava — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 52:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLumière
51% · 157 games48% · 136 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
53% · 191 game45% · 186 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyGenek
54% · 221 game46% · 131 game
WindrangerPiPi
Windranger
Disruptor
DisruptorGardick
53% · 135 games49% · 97 games
GrimstrokeYadomi
Grimstroke
48% · 154 games
Shadow DemonDemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2