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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 26 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 14 games
86%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 12 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 709 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 665 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
410 picks · 326 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 359 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 502 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 864 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
370 picks · 164 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 361 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:6
Tundra Esports 63%Entity 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:47.
Game 2prediction missed16:39
Tundra Esports 63%Entity 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 29:06.
Game 3prediction correct35:20
Tundra Esports 63%Entity 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3