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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team NextUploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 3 games
33%

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
30%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Petushara · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Mirage · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Petushara · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 706 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 664 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
409 picks · 325 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 361 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 498 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
390 picks · 865 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 160 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 361 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:21
GRIN esports 60%Team NextUp 40%
The model gave 60% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMoo
48% · 229 games52% · 98 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
49% · 187 games56% · 128 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
49% · 68 games
MarsMiyaoo
Mars
48% · 122 games
Batriderso bad
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct43:13
GRIN esports 58%Team NextUp 42%
The model gave 58% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMoo
43% · 106 games62% · 50 games
Lifestealer7jesu
Lifestealer
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
53% · 93 games35% · 37 games
RazorMiyaoo
Razor
63% · 50 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
49% · 62 games
Shadow Demonso bad
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 67%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2