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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 13 games
62%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 13 games
38%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
erase · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
rue · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 706 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 664 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
409 picks · 325 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 361 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 498 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
390 picks · 865 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 160 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 361 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
Virtus.pro 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
53% · 152 games51% · 160 games
Faceless VoidSatanic
Faceless Void
Razor
RazorSquad1x
46% · 110 games54% · 138 games
Dragon Knightemptiness
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
51% · 166 games54% · 250 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Tusk
Tusksayuw
45% · 167 games45% · 112 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
50% · 243 games50% · 178 games
Techiesasdekor_r
Techies
Game 2prediction missed27:28
Virtus.pro 64%Yellow Submarine 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:03:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
48% · 267 games45% · 95 games
Anti-MageSatanic
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
50% · 299 games51% · 424 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
40% · 121 game52% · 206 games
Marsemptiness
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
56% · 209 games44% · 138 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaFng
58% · 201 game55% · 234 games
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2