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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 17 games
65%

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
17%
Lion
Lion
queezy · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xakoda · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SSS · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
chempik · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
chempik · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 702 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
409 picks · 664 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
407 picks · 325 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 361 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 496 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 863 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
362 picks · 160 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:16
1w Team 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
48% · 92 games56% · 107 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
48% · 236 games51% · 137 games
Bloodseekernesfeer
Bloodseeker
Windranger
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
47% · 136 games39% · 37 games
Night StalkerSSS
Night Stalker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetswedenstrong
55% · 109 games57% · 210 games
PugnaXakoda
Pugna
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
41% · 135 games52% · 217 games
Shadow DemonRein
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed21:41
1w Team 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by One Move in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
50% · 209 games46% · 310 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaCloud
52% · 166 games53% · 114 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Windranger
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
51% · 139 games45% · 279 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
48% · 275 games56% · 51 game
Bounty HunterXakoda
Bounty Hunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
51% · 198 games51% · 233 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct35:4
1w Team 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
46% · 133 games62% · 107 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Razor
RazorCloud
48% · 93 games53% · 102 games
Keeper of the Lightxn丶e
Keeper of the Light
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
46% · 186 games46% · 172 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
59% · 38 games50% · 164 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
43% · 128 games55% · 33 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3