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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 3 games
0%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 12 games
42%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 702 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
409 picks · 664 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
407 picks · 325 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 361 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 496 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 863 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
362 picks · 160 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
JustBetter 13%PSG Quest 87%
The model gave 87% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest.
Game 2prediction correct
JustBetter 13%PSG Quest 87%
The model gave 87% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 87%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2