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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zeroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lion
fy · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 17 games
65%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
lou · 17 games
59%

Team Zero

Lion
Lion
Ponlo · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Luna
Luna
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zzq · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 700 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
406 picks · 325 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 663 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 361 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 858 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 493 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 160 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total82% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:4
Azure Ray 66%Team Zero 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 19:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorFaith_bian
51% · 89 games49% · 82 games
Lina7e
Lina
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
45% · 139 games53% · 178 games
Dragon KnightBEYOND
Dragon Knight
Slark
Slarklou
53% · 90 games50% · 64 games
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Tiny
Tinyfy
45% · 201 game50% · 234 games
LionPonlo
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon天命
46% · 167 games58% · 128 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Azure Ray 68%Team Zero 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidlou
50% · 210 games45% · 119 games
RazorBEYOND
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainOri
52% · 115 games58% · 167 games
Slarkpoyoyo
Slark
Kunkka
KunkkaFaith_bian
48% · 148 games54% · 338 games
Primal Beast7e
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickfy
49% · 385 games54% · 272 games
TinyPonlo
Tiny
Enchantress
Enchantress天命
45% · 254 games45% · 216 games
Shadow Demonzzq
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 82%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2