PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MANTA Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
MANTA Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 697 bans
Techies
406 picks · 325 bans
Mars
404 picks · 660 bans
Lion
396 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
387 picks · 858 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 492 bans
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
Crystal Maiden
358 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
Blacklist International 86%MANTA Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 27:55.
Game 2prediction missed32:5
Blacklist International 86%MANTA Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 23:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 86%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2