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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eagleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
60%
Omniknight
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 5 games
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%

Eagle

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 12 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Tz. · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 4 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Manic · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
Hara · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 697 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
405 picks · 324 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 656 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
387 picks · 853 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 487 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
358 picks · 160 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% KEV
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:27
KEV 60%Eagle 40%
The model gave 60% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenflyfly
44% · 129 games55% · 37 games
WeaverManic
Weaver
Razor
RazorELeVeN
50% · 99 games48% · 165 games
Puckblessing
Puck
Tiny
TinyButterflyEffect
51% · 194 games51% · 168 games
TerrorbladeHara
Terrorblade
Disruptor
DisruptorUndyne_
55% · 115 games47% · 167 games
Centaur WarrunnerVictoria
Centaur Warrunner
Game 2prediction correct28:14
KEV 61%Eagle 39%
The model gave 61% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaflyfly
49% · 75 games51% · 102 games
MorphlingManic
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death ProphetELeVeN
43% · 76 games56% · 95 games
Keeper of the Lightblessing
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskButterflyEffect
53% · 100 games46% · 93 games
TinyHara
Tiny
Oracle
OracleUndyne_
50% · 42 games43% · 3 games
Ogre MagiVictoria
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 68%
Series resultKEV 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2